AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.2 | 26.0 to 34.4 | 19.7 to 40.6 | 99% | 94% | 79% | 51% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 28.9 | 24.8 to 33.0 | 18.6 to 39.1 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 43% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.5 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.3 | 18.6 to 25.9 | 13.2 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | - |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.3 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.2 | 73% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.4 | 69% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.5 | 16.8 to 36.4 | 97% | 86% | 60% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 25.1 | 21.3 to 28.9 | 15.5 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.3 | 20.6 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.8 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 12.9 to 30.8 | 90% | 64% | 28% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.0 to 28.0 | 81% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 16.9 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.3 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.3 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |