AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 109 | 93 to 125 | 69 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 107 | 91 to 123 | 67 to 146 | 94% | 86% | 75% | 61% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 27% | 15% | - |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 97 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Chad Warner | C | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 83 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 73 | 58 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |