AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.5 | 80% | 57% | 32% | 13% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 73% | 46% | 21% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 60% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom Atkins | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.4 | 80% | 57% | 32% | 13% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 73% | 46% | 21% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 65% | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 45% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |