AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.6 | 84% | 74% | 63% | 49% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 83% | 73% | 61% | 47% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 81% | 70% | 58% | 44% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | - |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.6 to 12.2 | 87% | 78% | 68% | 55% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |