AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.2 / inside our 50% range: 32.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 109 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 28.9 / inside our 90% range: 35.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 107 / inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 23.8 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.3 / - | -0.0 / - | 4.1 / - | 3.4 / - | 86 / - |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 18.1 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 18.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 17.5 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 14.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 6.5 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 12.4 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.6 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 25.1 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.3 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Chad Warner | C | 21.9 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 20.6 / outside our 90% range: 34.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 18.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 17.1 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 16.9 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 60 / outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 16.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 11.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 11.0 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 66 |