AFL · ROUND 11 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 13
GEE to win, 70% chance
GEE 70%30% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 13.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | R | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 59% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | - |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | WR | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 75% | 62% | 48% | 34% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |