AFL · ROUND 11 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu 21 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 0.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.6 | 16.8 to 36.5 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 25.1 | 21.3 to 29.0 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.1 | 19.4 to 26.8 | 13.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 21.4 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.5 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 29.0 | 84% | 53% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Conor Nash | R | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.5 to 28.8 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 16.8 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 14.7 | 11.8 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.1 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | FPL | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.3 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.1 | 19.4 to 26.8 | 13.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.1 to 31.0 | 90% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.1 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Izak Rankine | R | 21.4 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.5 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.1 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.3 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |