AFL · ROUND 11 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu 21 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 0.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 63% | 45% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Conor Nash | R | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Josh Ward | C | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Cameron Nairn | FPL | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Izak Rankine | R | 88 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| James Peatling | RR | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| James Borlase | FB | 39 | 27 to 51 | 10 to 68 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 37 | 26 to 49 | 8 to 66 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |