AFL · ROUND 11 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu 21 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 0.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 70% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 65% | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | FPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 60% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |