AFL · ROUND 11 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu 21 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 0.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.6 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 25.1 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Josh Ward | C | 21.4 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.9 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Conor Nash | R | 20.2 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 20.1 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.6 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 16.8 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Cameron Nairn | FPL | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | -0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 23.7 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 5.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 23.2 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.1 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 22.0 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 21.6 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Izak Rankine | R | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 14.4 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 12.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 39 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 9.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 9.4 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 37 / inside our 50% range: 47 |