AFL · ROUND 11 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu 21 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 0.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 55% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | FPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | INT | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 87% | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |