AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 23 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 9
GCS to win, 64% chance
NM 36%64% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.4 | 26.2 to 34.6 | 19.9 to 40.9 | 99% | 95% | 80% | 53% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.4 | 17.4 to 37.4 | 98% | 89% | 65% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.7 | 15.4 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.8 | 95% | 78% | 46% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.6 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.1 | 12.7 to 30.4 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 26.0 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 11.8 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.3 | 24.3 to 32.4 | 18.2 to 38.5 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 40% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.7 | 16.1 to 35.5 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 25.7 | 21.8 to 29.6 | 16.0 to 35.4 | 96% | 83% | 55% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 25.7 | 21.8 to 29.5 | 16.0 to 35.3 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 24.5 | 20.7 to 28.3 | 15.1 to 34.0 | 95% | 78% | 47% | 17% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 91% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.4 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | CHF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |