AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 23 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 9
GCS to win, 64% chance
NM 36%64% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 112 | 96 to 128 | 72 to 152 | 96% | 90% | 81% | 69% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 121 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 99 | 84 to 115 | 61 to 138 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 49% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 66% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 115 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 86% | 73% | 58% | 41% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| John Noble | WR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 51 | 38 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben King | FF | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jed Walter | FPL | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | CHF | 45 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |