AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 23 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 9
GCS to win, 64% chance
NM 36%64% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |