AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 23 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 9
GCS to win, 64% chance
NM 36%64% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Wardlaw | INT | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 79% | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 80% | 69% | 55% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |