AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.1 | 26.0 to 34.3 | 19.7 to 40.6 | 99% | 94% | 79% | 51% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.7 to 27.5 | 79% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.1 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 9.2 | 6.9 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 28.5 | 24.4 to 32.6 | 18.3 to 38.7 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 26.0 | 22.1 to 29.9 | 16.2 to 35.7 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 26.0 | 22.1 to 29.9 | 16.3 to 35.7 | 97% | 84% | 57% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.8 | 14.6 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 23.0 | 19.3 to 26.6 | 13.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 20.5 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 11.9 to 29.2 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.3 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 15.8 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 57% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 10.8 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.2 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |