AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 109 | 93 to 125 | 69 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Willem Drew | R | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 73 | 58 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 102 | 87 to 118 | 63 to 142 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| George Hewett | INT | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 54 | 41 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |