AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.5 | 80% | 58% | 33% | 14% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 71% | 43% | 18% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |