AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 28% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 49% | 31% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 7.6 | 5.4 to 9.7 | 2.7 to 12.4 | 88% | 80% | 69% | 57% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |