AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.1 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 109 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 23.7 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 23.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 89 / outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.9 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 6.1 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 16.0 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 14.8 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 12.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.7 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 28.5 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| George Hewett | INT | 26.0 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 26.0 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 24.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 23.0 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 20.5 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 18.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 15.9 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 67 / outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 13.7 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 37 |