AFL · ROUND 11 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 23 May 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 4
PA to win, 56% chance
PA 56%44% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 87% | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |