AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Richmond v Essendon
Fri 22 May 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 11
ESS to win, 66% chance
RIC 34%66% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
MISS Actual margin 18 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 24.6 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 87 / outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 24.1 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 8.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 17.9 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 17.0 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 70 / outside our 90% range: 106 |
| James Trezise | INT | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 15.9 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 14.9 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 13.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 13.5 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 13.1 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 10.8 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 10.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Jasper Alger | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 28.4 / inside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 99 / inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 27.8 / outside our 90% range: 41.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 27.5 / inside our 90% range: 36.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 103 / outside our 90% range: 148 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Sam Durham | R | 21.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 81 / outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 20.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 83 / outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 19.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 71 / outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 14.2 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 14.2 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Ben McKay | BPL | 11.2 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 9.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 48 / outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 7.9 / outside our 90% range: 15.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 96 |