AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Richmond v Essendon
Fri 22 May 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 11
ESS to win, 66% chance
RIC 34%66% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
MISS Actual margin 18 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.6 | 21.7 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.2 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.3 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 24.1 | 20.3 to 27.8 | 14.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 26.0 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.3 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasper Alger | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.5 | 18.2 to 38.5 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 27.8 | 23.8 to 31.8 | 17.8 to 37.9 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 36% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 41.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 27.5 | 23.5 to 31.5 | 17.5 to 37.5 | 98% | 89% | 66% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.4 to 30.1 | 88% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben McKay | BPL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.3 to 13.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |