AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Richmond v Essendon
Fri 22 May 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 11
ESS to win, 66% chance
RIC 34%66% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
MISS Actual margin 18 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 73 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| James Trezise | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 57 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Jasper Alger | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 103 | 87 to 118 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 38% | outside our 90% range: 148 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Sam Durham | R | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Ben McKay | BPL | 47 | 34 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Archer May | FPL | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 96 |