AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Richmond v Essendon
Fri 22 May 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 11
ESS to win, 66% chance
RIC 34%66% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
MISS Actual margin 18 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.5 | 3.2 to 13.4 | 91% | 84% | 76% | 65% | 54% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 86% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.6 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | INT | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben McKay | BPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |