AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun 24 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 4
MEL to win, 57% chance
WB 43%57% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 7.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.4 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 107 / inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 25.7 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.3 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.3 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 101 / inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 24.2 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 19.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 18.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 14.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Luke Cleary | BPL | 14.5 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 14.5 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 54 / outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.3 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 9.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.7 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.0 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 20.8 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.4 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 20.2 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 19.3 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 99 / inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 73 / outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 17.7 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 15.6 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 15.1 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 14.2 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFR | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Max Heath | INT | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / outside our 90% range: 20 |