AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun 24 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 4
MEL to win, 57% chance
WB 43%57% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 7.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.5 | 18.1 to 38.7 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.7 | 15.9 to 35.6 | 96% | 83% | 55% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 25.7 | 21.8 to 29.6 | 15.9 to 35.5 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.3 | 21.5 to 29.2 | 15.6 to 35.1 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.3 | 21.4 to 29.2 | 15.6 to 35.1 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 24.2 | 20.4 to 28.0 | 14.7 to 33.8 | 94% | 76% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.4 | 11.2 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.5 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.4 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.1 to 21.9 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Luke Cleary | BPL | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.9 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.2 | 7.8 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 8.5 | 6.3 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.2 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.7 | 13.7 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.4 | 12.0 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.5 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.6 | 11.4 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.8 to 27.8 | 79% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.5 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 17.7 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.6 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.3 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.7 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.2 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.6 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 11.0 | 8.5 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFR | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |