AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun 24 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 4
MEL to win, 57% chance
WB 43%57% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 7.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 67 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 76% | 61% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Ed Richards | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 136 | 87% | 76% | 62% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 135 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 43% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 86 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Luke Cleary | BPL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 45 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 49 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 82 | 67 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Max Heath | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |