AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun 24 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 4
MEL to win, 57% chance
WB 43%57% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 7.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Coffield | INT | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 76% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Cleary | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Langdon | WL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |