AFL · ROUND 11 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun 24 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 4
MEL to win, 57% chance
WB 43%57% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 7.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 82% | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Cleary | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 88% | 79% | 68% | 55% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 83% | 72% | 58% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |