AFL · ROUND 12 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat 30 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 14
BRI to win, 70% chance
BRI 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 38.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.7 | 25.5 to 33.9 | 19.1 to 40.3 | 99% | 93% | 76% | 48% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 39% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 13.8 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 22.7 | 19.0 to 26.3 | 13.4 to 31.9 | 91% | 68% | 34% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 12.8 to 31.0 | 89% | 63% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.6 | 12.1 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.3 | 11.9 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.8 | 11.6 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.2 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.6 to 27.6 | 78% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.3 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.3 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 4.9 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.3 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.1 | 15.4 to 34.9 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 24.1 | 20.3 to 27.9 | 14.6 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.4 to 26.9 | 13.8 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.1 | 12.5 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.5 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.1 to 26.8 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.1 | 9.6 to 26.0 | 71% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.5 | 9.1 to 25.3 | 67% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | R | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 8.9 to 24.9 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.3 to 22.3 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.1 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.7 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.2 | 2.4 to 13.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |