AFL · ROUND 12 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat 30 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 14
BRI to win, 70% chance
BRI 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 38.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 73% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 110 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 43 | 30 to 55 | 12 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 86 | 71 to 101 | 48 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Matthew Johnson | R | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 92 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 38 | 26 to 50 | 9 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |