AFL · ROUND 12 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat 30 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 14
BRI to win, 70% chance
BRI 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 38.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 73% | 46% | 20% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 69% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 70% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.0 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 76% | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 73% | 46% | 20% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |