AFL · ROUND 12 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat 30 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 14
BRI to win, 70% chance
BRI 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 38.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.6 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 36% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.7 | 84% | 75% | 63% | 50% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |