AFL · ROUND 12 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat 30 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 14
BRI to win, 70% chance
BRI 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 38.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.7 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 105 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 28.2 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.2 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 22.7 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 92 / outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.9 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 20.8 / outside our 90% range: 30.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 20.3 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 19.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 17.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 10.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 31 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 24.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 21.5 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.2 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 18.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.8 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Matthew Johnson | R | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.0 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 14.8 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 92 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.9 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 38 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 22 |