AFL · ROUND 12 · MCG
Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri 29 May 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 21
GEE to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 24.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 27.9 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 99 / inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 27.0 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Nic Newman | BPL | 22.8 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 22.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 17.5 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 16.5 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Will Hayward | HFFR | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 15.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 14.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 13.5 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 56 / outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.2 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.9 / inside our 50% range: 35.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 110 / inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 29.0 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 23.8 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.3 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Lawson Humphries | WR | 20.8 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 19.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 18.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 17.5 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 16.5 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 15.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Brad Close | FPR | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 64 |