AFL · ROUND 12 · MCG
Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri 29 May 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 21
GEE to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 24.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 27.9 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.7 to 38.2 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 27.0 | 23.0 to 31.0 | 16.9 to 37.1 | 97% | 87% | 62% | 31% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.7 | 15.9 to 35.6 | 96% | 83% | 55% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Nic Newman | BPL | 22.8 | 19.1 to 26.5 | 13.5 to 32.1 | 91% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 22.7 | 19.0 to 26.4 | 13.4 to 31.9 | 91% | 68% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.4 to 30.4 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.3 to 30.2 | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.4 | 62% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFR | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.0 to 23.5 | 56% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 7.9 to 23.4 | 55% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.8 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.8 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 3.9 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.9 | 26.6 to 35.2 | 20.1 to 41.7 | 99% | 95% | 81% | 55% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 35.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.2 | 18.5 to 39.5 | 98% | 92% | 73% | 44% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.5 | 14.3 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.3 | 18.6 to 25.9 | 13.1 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | WR | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.4 | 12.0 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.1 to 28.3 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.8 to 26.3 | 73% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.7 to 26.2 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.3 to 25.6 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.6 to 24.5 | 62% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.4 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.7 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 10.8 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brad Close | FPR | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |