AFL · ROUND 12 · MCG
Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri 29 May 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 21
GEE to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 24.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| George Hewett | INT | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Nic Newman | BPL | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Will Hayward | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 79% | 65% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 102 | 86 to 117 | 62 to 141 | 90% | 82% | 68% | 53% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Lawson Humphries | WR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Brad Close | FPR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |