AFL · ROUND 12 · MCG
Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri 29 May 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 21
GEE to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 24.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.5 | 2.5 to 12.2 | 86% | 78% | 67% | 55% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 83% | 74% | 61% | 48% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 54% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nic Newman | BPL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 50% | 35% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.8 | 85% | 75% | 64% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | WR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |