AFL · ROUND 12 · MCG
Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri 29 May 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 21
GEE to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 24.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nic Newman | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | INT | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 84% | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brad Close | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |