AFL · ROUND 12 · TIO TRAEGER PARK
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 31 May 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 59% chance
MEL 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 49
MISS Actual margin 49 · 54.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.6 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.2 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 13.9 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.2 to 30.1 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.8 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.6 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.4 | 11.2 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.5 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.5 to 27.5 | 78% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.6 | 63% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 7.9 to 23.3 | 55% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.7 to 23.0 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.2 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | INT | 8.4 | 6.2 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.0 | 25.8 to 34.2 | 19.4 to 40.6 | 99% | 94% | 78% | 50% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.6 | 18.1 to 38.8 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.2 | 17.8 to 38.4 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.4 | 12.0 to 29.8 | 86% | 56% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.2 to 27.1 | 76% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.7 to 24.7 | 64% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brent Daniels | HFFL | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.6 to 24.5 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.6 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 7.8 | 5.7 to 10.0 | 2.3 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |