AFL · ROUND 12 · TIO TRAEGER PARK
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 31 May 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 59% chance
MEL 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 49
MISS Actual margin 49 · 54.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 62 | 49 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Brody Mihocek | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 101 | 85 to 116 | 61 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 94 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 93 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Brent Daniels | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 12 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |