AFL · ROUND 12 · TIO TRAEGER PARK
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 31 May 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 59% chance
MEL 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 49
MISS Actual margin 49 · 54.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 13% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 65% | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 70% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 60% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brent Daniels | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |