AFL · ROUND 12 · TIO TRAEGER PARK
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 31 May 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 59% chance
MEL 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 49
MISS Actual margin 49 · 54.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Turner | FB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 76% | 64% | 49% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 54% | 40% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 58% | 44% | 29% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 69% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brent Daniels | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |