AFL · ROUND 12 · TIO TRAEGER PARK
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 31 May 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 59% chance
MEL 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 49
MISS Actual margin 49 · 54.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 87% | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 83% | 72% | 58% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 72% | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brent Daniels | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Stringer | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |