AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu 28 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
STK 30%70% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 38.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 17.3 to 37.7 | 98% | 88% | 66% | 34% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 25.0 | 21.1 to 28.9 | 15.3 to 34.7 | 95% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 14.8 to 34.0 | 94% | 77% | 46% | 17% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFR | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.6 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.7 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.7 to 29.3 | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.4 to 28.9 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | FPL | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.5 to 27.5 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 17.9 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.7 to 26.2 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 8.9 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.4 | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.2 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | FPR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WL | 11.1 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.6 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.7 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 7.8 | 5.6 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.7 to 35.3 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.3 | 14.9 to 34.1 | 94% | 78% | 46% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.7 | 13.6 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.3 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.1 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 21.3 | 17.7 to 24.9 | 12.3 to 30.3 | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.6 to 29.1 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.2 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Will Day | INT | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.0 to 28.3 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.5 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.7 | 10.0 to 26.7 | 74% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | FPL | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.5 | 68% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 15.8 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.1 to 23.6 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.7 to 23.1 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Flynn Perez | HBFR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 11.8 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |