AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu 28 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
STK 30%70% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 38.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 56 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 92 | 76 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Max Hall | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcy Wilson | FPL | 73 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Charlie Banfield | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Liam O'Connell | WL | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 45 | 33 to 58 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 40 | 28 to 52 | 11 to 70 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 87 | 72 to 102 | 49 to 124 | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 123 |
| Josh Ward | R | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jack Ginnivan | FPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Will Day | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Flynn Perez | HBFR | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |