AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu 28 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
STK 30%70% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 38.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | FPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.5 | 80% | 58% | 33% | 14% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 72% | 45% | 20% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 64% | 33% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 12% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | FPL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Flynn Perez | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |