AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu 28 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
STK 30%70% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 38.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | WR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 45% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 44% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | FPL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | FPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 7.6 | 5.5 to 9.8 | 2.7 to 12.5 | 88% | 80% | 70% | 58% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.9 | 85% | 76% | 65% | 52% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.8 | 85% | 76% | 64% | 52% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.4 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 47% | 34% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | FPL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Flynn Perez | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Day | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |