AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu 28 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
STK 30%70% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 38.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 27.5 / inside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 25.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 24.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 95 / outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFR | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Max Hall | C | 20.6 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Bradley Hill | WR | 20.5 / outside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Darcy Wilson | FPL | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 17.9 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 17.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 14.9 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.5 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 60 / outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Charlie Banfield | FPR | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Liam O'Connell | WL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 9.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 7.8 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.5 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.0 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.3 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 21.3 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Will Day | INT | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.7 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 85 / outside our 90% range: 123 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.9 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jack Ginnivan | FPL | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Flynn Perez | HBFR | 12.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 11.8 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 9.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Cameron Nairn | INT | 9.4 / outside our 90% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 49 |